Great Britain remains great

The Scots have spoken; the no’s have it. The outcome was with a larger majority than many expected and after a lengthy and hard fought battle. The answer was clear (approximately 55% against independence, with an 85% turnout), but yet there is still a lot to be done. Scotland will remain in the UK, until a next referendum by and for the next generation of Scots. However, it is clear that the powers of the Scots parliament and of the Scottish executive will be increased. That was indeed one of the promises made by Cameron to lure hesitant voters into the no camp. 

Analysis will show whether that was an important or decisive factor, but no matter what, devolution to Scotland will be strengthened. From devolution towards federalization so to speak. A larger share of oil revenues to Scotland; more say on taxes, the budget, social security and health care will have to be settled in an amended Scottish devolution Act. And as it appeared, the UK government will be reconsidering the devolution concept for the whole of the UK, also for Northern Ireland and Wales.

Different course

However, that leaves a few issues unresolved (apart from defining exactly how and which and to what extent powers will be devolved to Scotland). The first is that Scotland charts a different course than the British parliament: Scotland being more Labour and SNP (and EU) oriented and the British parliament definitely being more conservative. Labour may also sigh of relief: they will still be able to attract Scottish voters and thereby have a chance for a majority in the House of Commons. The conservatives will be relieved that they could keep Great Britain intact and will not be judged by history as the party that could not keep Great Britain intact after so many centuries.

This first referendum gamble for Cameron was successful. The tension between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain, and specifically England, might become less noticeable when Scotland is given more powers, however it will remain there, especially for those who voted yes! And it could become again to the surface when Cameron will hold another all British referendum about the EU as he promised in 2013 to do after the next parliamentary elections, when he wins them. What will then happen when that EU referendum will show a divide between English and Scottish voters about staying in the EU?

Another friction also remains, what is known as the Lothian question. Under the present state of affairs the Scots are represented in the House of Commons (and Lords) and thereby participate and vote in many issues also those that affect England and Wales, whilst the English and Welsh representatives do not vote on devolved powers to Scotland! This has already been an issue and will not lose its pertinence when the Scots (and Welsh) will have more devolved powers.

Federation

The new structure, with more and extensive powers for Scotland and Wales will the UK indeed make more look like a federation, instead of a central state with devolved powers. But this evolution requires more, it seems. An arbiter possibly to decide on frictions between the federal entities: a constitutional court? And a solution for the entity England: will that then also have its own parliament with furthermore another overarching federal parliament? 

Certainly, though the referendum is over, exciting times are still to come. The EU can relax now and does not need to bother about the question whether or not and how to admit an independent Scotland. The fact that Scotland remains in the UK will no doubt also have an impact on the possible near future UK referendum on the EU. And for domestic and also foreign political purposes the UK (the conservative party) will not be weakened by having to grant Scotland independence.